The agency trimmed its 2015 Brent crude forecast
The EIA also reduced its price forecasts. West Texas Intermediate will average $94.67 a barrel in 2015 versus the August projection of $96.08, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency trimmed its 2015 Brent crude forecast to $103 from $105 and cut the gasoline prediction to $3.41 from $3.46.
“Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports to just 21 percent of domestic demand, the lowest since 1968,” Sieminski said.
Falling Imports
Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have unlocked supplies in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and other states. U.S. crude production jumped to 8.6 million barrels a day in August, the most since July 1986. Those gains have prompted calls for lifting the U.S. ban on crude exports, including one yesterday from Larry Summers, formerly the top economic adviser to President Barack Obama.
WTI will average $98.28 a barrel this year, down from last month’s projection of $100.45, the report showed. Brent is forecast to average $106 this year, lower that the August estimate of $108.11. WTI dropped 1.2 percent to $91.67 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Jan. 9. Brent fell 1.1 percent to $98.04 a barrel, the lowest close since April 17, 2013, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Oil production outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise 3.4 percent from 2013 to 55.91 million barrels a day this year. The 2014 output projection was increased 100,000 barrels from August’s report.
OPEC members will produce 35.77 million barrels a day this year, the EIA said. Last month’s forecast was 35.84 million.
